By Clare Rice
Northern Ireland’s politics is dominated by the question of its constitutional future, either as a continuing part of the United Kingdom or as part of a united Ireland. The larger political parties align with these ambitions, and this bipartite perspective dominates wider assumptions about politics in and of the region.
However, these analyses have historically overlooked the ‘centre-ground’ of Northern Ireland’s contemporary politics i.e. parties and people who do not identify primarily or at all in constitutional terms. In recent years, the Alliance Party, the largest party in this space, has grown to become the third largest in the Northern Ireland Assembly and had a succession of electoral successes at council, Assembly, Westminster and European Parliament levels.
This ‘Alliance surge’ has raised the profile of the party outside Northern Ireland, and has given the party its firmest basis yet to argue both that there is a demand for a politics that is not embedded in unionism and nationalism, and that it represents something different. Formed in 1970, this is not a new party, but it is one that has not received the same level of academic interest as others. In recent years, particularly in response to the specific challenges that Brexit has presented for Northern Ireland and debates on its constitutional future, this has started to change.
The first book-length academic study of the Alliance Party and its members was recently published in a new volume with Oxford University Press. It is a book that comes from several years of research, funded through grants from the Economic and Social Research Council, The British Academy, and the Political Studies Association. It comprised a number of core components, including archival research, a survey of over 2000 people in Northern Ireland’s electorate who self-identified as neither unionist nor nationalist, a survey of the Alliance Party’s full membership, interviews with elected representatives and former leaders, and a series of focus groups with members. The book draws on this body of research in addressing pressing questions about the history of the party, its structures, policies, operations and future plans.
Different aspects of the work have drawn attention from the media to date, particularly in relation to the party’s stance on Northern Ireland’s constitutional future. For example, the finding that more members would support Irish unity (37.5%) than remaining in the UK (27.2%) has received a lot of coverage – but it is important to note two points in relation to this. Firstly, this outcome needs to be read in the context of party members being overwhelmingly pro-European, with 88% stating that they would vote for a return to the EU, which Irish unification would bring. 83% of members believe that Brexit has made Irish unification more likely. Secondly, the party has a three-way split between preference for Irish unification, continuing as part of the UK, and those who are undecided (29.7%). It is not the case that the party can be considered to be dominated by a single view on the constitutional issue, but it is an important player in what the outcome of any future ‘Border Poll’ might be. This is one reason why our book is a timely study.
It is in this context that three of the key themes emerging from this work are outlined.
Firstly, the issue of the constitutional status of Northern Ireland is ubiquitous in its absence as a policy priority for the party’s members. It does not feature as a top ten issue, with matters such as healthcare, education and institutional reform being among the top priorities. This poses a question as to what the party will do in the event of a Border Poll – will it take a position to campaign for either position, or will it allow its members to campaign according to their own preference? This is one of the most difficult challenges the party will navigate, and it has been under increasing scrutiny and pressure to say what it will do. The party’s position is that it will take a decision based on evidence at the time, and there are different views within the party about whether it should take a position or remain neutral.
Secondly, if the party is not steered by constitutional considerations, what attracts its members? Three-quarters of members see it as an alternative to unionism and nationalism; 78% of members do not identify in terms of unionism or nationalism; and almost half of members describe their strongest national identity as Northern Irish. Members cited these as reasons they decided to join the party in the first instance, further reinforcing the idea that the party is something distinct and exists within a specific space in the politics of Northern Ireland.
Thirdly, who are the members of the Alliance Party? Based on our membership survey, the party has more men than women (58% to 42%). There is a reluctance with regard to use of quotas, but an open-mindedness to considering their use in the future. Just under 15% of members identify as being part of the LGBTQ+ community. Almost half of members stated that they do not consider themselves to belong to any particular religion. It’s a party with an exceptionally active youth movement, and the largest influx of new members has been since 2010, particularly for younger members, with the age profile of the party spanning all age groups from 18-80+.
The book engages with these dynamics in the context of historical and contemporary debates on the party’s purpose and place within Northern Ireland’s politics. There will be different takes on the content of the book and what our findings might mean for the evolving debates on the constitutional future(s) of these islands in the years ahead. The book’s purpose is to address a gaping void in the academic study of Northern Ireland’s politics, and contribute to enhancing wider understanding of politics in this space, in the context of a society that remains divided along ethnic and constitutional lines.
All of these findings are significant given that, as things stand, the party and its members will hold an influential position in determining the outcome of a ‘Border Poll’ when the time comes.
Dr Clare Rice is a co-author of this book and was the project’s Research Associate.
The book was formally launched at UU Belfast in October 2024, and included a panel discussion with local journalists and Alliance Party members. See here for a recording of the event.