Scenarios for Scotland 2020

Reports & Briefings
Clare de Mowbray

There are any number of possible scenarios for Scotland, the UK and Europe that could materialise following the September 18th, 2014 referendum vote on Scottish independence. It will depend on whether it is a ‘yes’ or ‘no’ vote, and how the negotiations, behaviours of those negotiating, national interests and public opinion in Scotland, the UK and Europe unfold. No matter whether it is a ‘yes’ or a ‘no’ vote, there will be twists and turns, highs and lows, junctures and turning points on the road ahead. The outcome cannot be predicted. It is uncertain. But some of the possibilities can be better understood.

The paper presents four scenarios. They are not designed to support either the case for Scottish independence or remaining part of the United Kingdom. Their purpose is to illustrate some of the ways that certainties and uncertainties might interact. The paper begins with an overview of the research that the scenarios are based on. It then goes on to present four short stories – four possible scenarios of any number of different possibilities. It then considers some of the implications of these scenarios for business.

ESRC Sceranios for Scotland Report.pdf (536.98 KB, application/pdf)