Migration to and from Scotland could potentially be affected by the outcome of the 2014 Scottish referendum on the constitutional future of the United Kingdom. The likelihood and extent of changes in migration have not been thoroughly analysed to date.

This briefing paper presents selected outcomes of the analyses carried out by the ESRC Centre for Population Change on the possible effects of Scottish independence on internal and international migration. In particular, it aims to describe the uncertainty of future migration taking into account most of the available information. This includes the available historical data on migration, as well as opinions from academic and civil service experts in Scotland on future migration trends.