It’s almost 100 years since the first woman was elected to the House of Commons – the Irish politician Constance Markievicz. 

75 years later and the percentage of women at Westminster is still a paltry 22%. As the parties make their selections for the ‘closest election ever’, we can see what kind of commitment they are making to increasing the number of women selected, the number selected in winnable seats, and therefore the number of women we might actually see elected. 

Of course in Scotland the polls feel a little less reliable than usual. The indications are that the SNP will win a high number of seats, but in the past voters have chosen major UK wide parties rather than the SNP at Westminster elections. 

So, every prediction comes with a bit of a health warning. 

That said, there are some statistics worth highlighting. Only 28% of the candidates selected as of March 9^th are women. The Scottish Greens, who have an active positive measures policy to ensure they reach at least 40/60 in candidates have succeeded in meeting that target – 42% of their 31 candidates are women. The Scottish Conservatives, who broadly oppose positive measures have only 18% women candidates. 

Scottish Labour and the Liberal Democrats both have 26% women candidates. The SNP have 36%. 

This latter figure is worth noting. The SNP only have 1 woman MP of 6. They have 21 women candidates this time, of 59. Many of those women were active in the Yes campaign – notably through Women for Independence. The willingness of these women to stand, and their selection by fellow party members indicates that their activity during the independence campaign has increased their confidence, and allowed them to find their political voice – and to share it. There is a lesson here that whilst positive measures do change the percentages, they can be complemented by providing women only spaces for women to develop their campaigning skills and experience. 

But the second lesson will have to wait for election night – and that is to see if these women are standing in winnable seats. As mentioned the polls, whilst massively favouring the SNP, should, in my opinion be viewed with caution. Scots have a habit of changing their vote depending on the institution to which they are sending representatives. 

That said, there are 24 seats in Scotland that I can confidently predict will be won by a man. Mostly because there are only men standing in certain constituencies, or the solitary woman is from a smaller party unlikely to take the seat. 

In contrast, there are just two seats where I would put money on a woman winning – Glasgow East, which is held by Labour’s Margaret Curran and being fought by Natalie McGarry for the SNP, and Banff and Buchan, an SNP stronghold where I would expect Eilidh Whiteford to be re-elected.

If the SNP sweep the board on May 7^th then we could see a maximum of 21 women MPs. If Jim Murphy and Willie Bain hold their seats for Labour that number drops to 19. Interestingly all the opposing candidates contesting Willie Bain’s Glasgow North East constituency are women – but it’s the safest seat in Scotland so despite there being 4 women to 1 man the fact that historically more men were elected and thus hold incumbency in safe seats and are hard to topple under First Past the Post means it looks like Glasgow North East will continue to be represented by a male MP. 

What does all this tell us? I would suggest the following recommendations can be drawn:

• Women are empowered and enthused when they can grow their confidence and skills with the shared strength of other women so parties should encourage these sorts of spaces – especially at the local level. Many MPs and MSPs learnt their trade in local government – which currently has only about 25% women as councillors. We need to change this. 
• One blunt tool to accomplish more equal numbers of women is quotas. There is increasing momentum in Scotland for quotas for women in public life. Consideration should be given to extending this to political life.
• Regardless of the number of willing and able women wanting to participate in formal politics, at the end of the day the gatekeepers are the parties who select who stands in which seat. Parties must be honest with themselves and their members as to which constituencies should be highlighted as winnable and women should be encouraged to fight for selection in those seats. 
• Changing the voting system will not in and of itself bring more women into politics, but it will end the stranglehold of ‘safe seats’ and incumbents that means we repeat a vicious cycle election after election of men winning seats held by men for decades. 

Of course all of the research suggests that women participate and succeed when they see other women taking part – so the role of the media is also vitally important. Last week BBC Scotland 2015 included a segment on women in politics – with women commentators – and then followed it up with a segment on recent polling reports – with only men featuring. On Sunday Politics Scotland, the lead news story was the low percentage of women candidates – preceded by a discussion that only involved men. The media must acknowledge their role in inviting women to comment and in involving them in conversations about more than the role of women. 

For more about women candidates across the UK, the Electoral Reform Society will be publishing a report on Women in Westminster on Friday, 13^th March. Check the website at http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/