Senedd Election 2026: Rupture and Radicalism in Welsh Politics
By Nye Davies
Whenever I write about Welsh politics, I tend to return to Gwyn Alf Williams. Despite passing away in 1995, the ‘people’s remembrancer’ continues to offer one of the most powerful ways of understanding Wales’ political trajectory. In the aftermath of Plaid Cymru’s historic victory at the 2026 Senedd election, this was no exception.
Writing in the wake of the 1979 referendum, when the people of Wales rejected devolution, Gwyn Alf was despondent. He wrote that in this moment they had “declared bankrupt the political beliefs that modern Welsh people had embraced”, perhaps even bringing about “the death of Wales itself”. After the experience of the referendum and the crushing 1984-85 miners’ strike, he described Welsh people as standing “naked under an acid rain”.
More than forty years on, however, Welsh nationalists were enjoying an historic moment of success. For the first time, Plaid Cymru topped the poll in Wales, ushering in a pivotal turning point in the party’s history and toppling Welsh Labour, whose hegemony Gwyn Alf said “had hardened into oligarchy”. The left-right divide in Wales is now characterised as Plaid versus Reform.
As Gwyn Alf might have put it, there has been a rupture in Welsh politics.
Party fortunes
The 2026 Senedd election reflected sharply differing fortunes. Reform’s second‑place finish, while perhaps below expectations, still represents a substantial breakthrough. Having supplanted the Conservatives as the main force on the right, the party will feel emboldened by its new position. Yet its rapid rise also brings uncertainty, particularly regarding inexperience and ideological cohesion, problems previously seen with UKIP’s brief success in Wales when the group disintegrated over time. Nevertheless, Reform will look to capitalise on the broader discontent across the UK that has underpinned its growth, with a strong position in the Senedd to challenge the Welsh Government.
For Welsh Labour, an era has definitively ended. Reduced to a small opposition group, the party now faces a profound reckoning with its long period of dominance and the reasons for its collapse. Any recovery will depend on confronting the deep and unresolved tensions between its Senedd and Westminster wings. Already the signs suggest that this reckoning may be difficult to achieve.
Elsewhere, the picture is bleak for the Conservatives, who now sit firmly in Reform’s shadow. The Greens, by contrast, have made history with their first Senedd seats, and are likely to be natural partners for Plaid. Welsh liberalism survives only marginally, with a single MS leaving the party struggling to find relevance in the new political landscape.
The Welsh radical tradition
For Plaid Cymru, this marks the greatest moment in its history, continuing an electoral journey that began with Gwynfor Evans becoming Plaid’s first MP in 1966. For veterans of the nationalist movement, the result was deeply emotional. Plaid has moved beyond its heartlands into a position of power and can now plausibly claim to represent large swathes of the country.
There is often talk in Welsh historiography, and in the rhetoric of politicians, of a distinct Welsh radicalism. This tradition emerged not as a single ideology, but in different forms that, in often competing ways, synthesised and incorporated elements of liberal, socialist, labourist and nationalist thought. From early radical liberalism and nonconformity came a strong ethical concern with justice, equality and the dignity of ordinary people. Industrialisation grounded this moral radicalism in materialist realities, embedding demands for democracy, workers’ rights and state intervention. Nationalism, meanwhile, supplied a further strand: an insistence that political power should reflect Welsh communities, language and culture. While these elements produced competing political movements, they have been united by a shared commitment to progressive change and the recognition of Wales as a nation.
For over a century, Welsh Labour convincingly positioned itself as the primary bearer of this tradition. Post-devolution, its electoral dominance, historic roots in working-class communities, and moral language of solidarity and social justice allowed it to channel radical instincts through a soft-nationalist Welsh framing. But that settlement has frayed. As it has become more managerial, cautious and increasingly detached from its historic social base, Welsh Labour’s claim to this tradition has become tenuous.
Plaid’s 2026 Senedd victory therefore marks more than an electoral shift: it represents a transfer of this progressive inheritance. By combining a renewed commitment to social justice with an explicit politics of Welsh self-government, Plaid now carries the banner of this tradition. Where Labour once balanced Welsh radicalism within the British state, Plaid articulates it as a national, progressive project aimed at transformation rather than administration and standing up to Westminster.
The road ahead
The historic nature of this result comes with significant responsibility and Plaid’s path forward will be filled with challenges. Westminster is unlikely to provide additional funding, and it is unclear whether Starmer (or whoever is leader) will engage more constructively with the Welsh Government on devolution. Labour at a UK level could adopt a more strategic approach that accommodates some of Plaid’s demands, challenging Rhun ap Iorwerth’s administration to take more responsibility for policy decisions in Wales. The first phone call between Keir Starmer and the new First Minister suggests a more constructive dialogue on further powers.
Whatever the response, any intransigence would likely work to Plaid’s advantage. Its longstanding mission to put Wales first is now supported by the possession of power. If UK Labour proves obstructive, Plaid can adopt the ‘standing up for Wales’ rhetoric that was so important to Welsh Labour’s success. The UK Government, meanwhile, must now navigate a more complex relationship with nationalist parties across the devolved legislatures.
More than forty years after Gwyn Alf Williams anticipated the death of Wales as a nation, the 2026 Senedd election suggests that a significant portion of the electorate has placed its faith in a party that confidently articulates a distinctly Welsh national political consciousness, one that Gwyn Alf feared was in decline. In doing so, they have not rejected the political beliefs he saw as endangered, but appear to have reaffirmed them, with Plaid Cymru now positioned as their principal inheritor.
However, this should not be read as evidence that Wales has suddenly transformed into a uniformly social democratic nation. Reform’s strong performance points instead to a more fragmented and polarised political landscape, underpinned by competing notions of national identity, and shaped as much by discontent as by hope. Plaid will therefore need to govern in a way that tangibly improves people’s lives and brings about material change. In twenty-seven years, despite progressive intentions and lofty rhetoric, Welsh Labour fell short of such transformation. If Plaid succeeds where Labour failed, then 2026 may come to be seen by Plaid’s supporters as the moment Wales stepped out of the “acid rain” and into clearer skies.