From UK in a Changing Europe
Our first monthly survey shows significant uncertainty about Brexit. However, some key themes emerge:
Our panel put the prospect of no deal at around 50%.
The UK is highly likely to leave on 29 March 2019
A second referendum is seen as highly unlikely.
The October EU Council deadline is unlikely to be met.
The transition period will need to be extended beyond December 2020.
Finally, there were significant splits over the final deal. A plurality of participants feel a Canada style free trade deal is the most likely outcome of the Brexit process, involving a border on the island of Ireland.
The full details can be found here: http://ukandeu.ac.uk/brexit-policy-panel/