Table 1: Remain and Leave in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, January-May 2016
Table 2: Remain and Leave by Phone and Internet Polls in England, January-May 2016
Table 3: A UK-wide Calculation Using the Phone Poll Average from England
Table 4 does the same using the average for internet polls in England. In this case the UK as a whole sees a wafer-thin margin in favour of Remain, but with a (slim) English majority for Leave. If this pattern were replicated on 23 June England would indeed be held in the EU against its will.