By Davide Vampa
Reform UK’s dramatic victory in the 2025 English local elections, following the party’s breakthrough in the 2024 general election, has shaken the political establishment and fuelled speculation about whether Scotland might also be entering a new era of political turmoil. With polls now suggesting that Reform could overtake the Conservatives and close in on Labour in Scotland, it is increasingly clear that the party is no longer an exclusively English phenomenon. This marks a major departure from the recent past, when Scotland appeared largely insulated from the appeal of right-wing populism.
Scotland’s Past Immunity: A Look Back to 2016
To understand the significance of this shift, it is worth looking back to May 2016, a few weeks before the EU referendum that would dramatically alter the course of British politics. Devolved parliamentary elections were held in Scotland and Wales, on the same day as elections in London and various English local councils. At the time, the UK Independence Party (UKIP) – a populist radical right party led by Nigel Farage – was still consolidating its position as a key challenger to both the Labour and Conservative parties. Having secured an unprecedented 12.6 per cent of the vote in the 2015 general election, UKIP continued to attract significant support, reaching as high as 20 per cent in British voting intentions according to a YouGov poll conducted just before the May 2016 elections.
In the end, UKIP performed well in Wales, achieving its first breakthrough in a devolved parliamentary election there with 12.5 per cent of the vote, and eroding support for both Labour (down 7.6 percentage points) and the Conservatives (down 4 percentage points). Even in the London Assembly election, despite a less receptive metropolitan context, UKIP managed to win two seats (out of 25) with around 8 per cent of the vote. By contrast, Scotland stood out as a clear exception. While much attention was rightly devoted to the Scottish National Party’s (SNP) third consecutive election victory, another party was also on the rise – and it was not UKIP, which won just 2 per cent of the regional list vote. In 2016, the Scottish Conservatives managed to capitalise on their hard-unionist opposition to the SNP’s pro-independence agenda, increasing their vote share by around 10 percentage points and overtaking Labour as the main opposition party.
The Scottish party system was highly polarised around constitutional issues following the 2014 independence referendum. Yet this form of polarisation helped prevent – rather than facilitate – the rise of a populist challenger on the right, while also squeezing moderate pro-devolution forces such as Labour and the Liberal Democrats. In fact, the polarised relationship between the SNP and the Conservatives could be regarded as ‘symbiotic’, helping both parties to strengthen and consolidate their positions and close the electoral market to potential competitors. This dynamic was reinforced by the Brexit referendum and confirmed in the subsequent general election and the 2021 Scottish Parliament election.
Scotland Catches the Wave? Reform UK’s Rising Tide
Today, a new – and even stronger – wave of right-wing populism is sweeping England and Wales. This time, however, Scotland no longer appears immune. The 2025 English local elections and the by-election in Runcorn and Helsby, held on 1 May, saw the triumph of Reform UK, once again led by Nigel Farage. Compared to the rise of UKIP in the mid-2010s, the success of Reform has been unprecedented for a ‘third party’ – not merely disrupting but effectively demolishing the old Tory-Labour duopoly in key areas of England. Although Reform had already made significant inroads into the electorate during the 2024 general election, its momentum has continued to build this year. Unlike in 2015-2016, Scotland now appears to be following a similar political trajectory.
Already last year, Scottish voters punished both the SNP and the Conservatives, with both parties seeing their vote shares drop significantly. Between 2022 and 2024, the two parties experienced leadership crises and, from their respective positions of incumbency at central and devolved levels, became increasingly unable to sustain the ‘symbiotic’ polarised relationship that had allowed them to dominate opposing camps on the constitutional divide. The de-polarisation of the constitutional debate temporarily favoured the Labour Party, which experienced a significant reversal of fortunes by regaining its position as the largest party in Scotland. This revival, however, appears to have been short-lived in a political context that now seems far less structured.
In 2024, another important development occurred in Scotland. For the first time in a major national election with turnout exceeding 50 per cent of registered voters, a populist radical right party secured a significant share of the Scottish vote. With the polarising dynamic between the SNP and the Conservative Party weakening, Reform UK was able to carve out a space in the Scottish party system – mainly at the expense of the Tories. While Farage’s party won around half the vote share it achieved nationally (7 per cent in Scotland versus 14 per cent across the UK), this still marked a clear improvement compared to 2015, when UKIP secured a similar UK-wide share but only 1.6 per cent in Scotland.
Recent polls confirm the upward trend for Reform UK, while the SNP, Labour, and the Conservatives are attempting to reorient their political strategies after a decade dominated by constitutional debates over independence and Brexit. Although the decline in support for the SNP appears to have stopped, the party is struggling to move beyond 30-35 per cent – well below the peaks it once reached (often surpassing 45 per cent of the constituency vote). Both the Conservatives and Labour – for different reasons – are failing to establish themselves as the main alternative to the SNP. In the absence of a clearly structured dynamic among the mainstream parties, the conditions remain favourable for a challenger to gain ground. Reform is currently projected to win around 15 per cent of the vote, overtaking the Conservatives in some polls and coming close to Labour. Given the scale of the shifts observed in the English local elections, it is not entirely inconceivable that Reform could establish itself as Scotland’s second-largest party in next year’s Scottish Parliament election.
The SNP’s Gamble: Confronting Reform UK
The SNP appears to be noticing a shift in the electoral landscape and is seeking to recreate the polarising conditions that have long secured its dominance. For many years, the SNP portrayed the Tories (particularly when in power in Westminster) as its primary opponents – a strategy that suited both sides, with the Tories benefiting from the confrontation as part of the symbiotic dynamic described earlier. However, this time, the focus may shift further to the right. In response to the English election results, Scottish First Minister John Swinney warned that Scotland must be ‘alive’ to the ‘threat’ posed by Nigel Farage, accusing Conservatives and Labour of ‘cosying up’ to the right-wing party. This rhetoric could signal an attempt to forge a new form of polarisation, this time with Reform UK positioned as the key adversary on the right. By framing Reform UK as a direct threat, the SNP could position itself as the primary bulwark against a far-right surge, potentially attracting new support from centre-left voters, who might be tempted to vote for Labour, the Lib Dems or Greens but also want to send a strong message opposing the rise of the far right.
However, this strategy carries risks. By elevating Reform UK as the SNP’s primary opposition, the party may inadvertently legitimise a political force that thrives on anti-establishment sentiment, with unpredictable consequences for Scottish democratic life. Unlike the SNP-Tory rivalry, a polarised battle with Reform UK would centre less on the unionism-nationalism divide and more on culture wars and net zero policies. Farage’s supporters in Scotland seem to prioritise hostility towards the ‘elites’ of both Westminster and Holyrood over constitutional issues – with Scottish Conservatives even questioning whether Reform UK really is a ‘party of the union’ in an effort to reassert themselves as the main anti-SNP opposition.
While standing firm against Farage may yield short-term electoral gains for the SNP as the defender of progressive-liberal values, in the long term it risks amplifying the importance of an adversary skilled at mobilising anti-establishment sentiment. In such a context, constitutional positions could become secondary to widespread discontent with elites at all levels. By positioning Reform UK as the SNP’s primary competitor, Swinney may inadvertently place his party in a more vulnerable position, as it nears 20 years in power and, despite its pro-independence aspirations, is already widely associated with Scotland’s political status quo.
Davide Vampa is Senior Lecturer in Territorial Politics and Co-Director of the Centre on Constitutional Change, University of Edinburgh.