by Nye Davies, Lecturer in Politics at Cardiff University

After winning an historic landslide at the general election and ending fourteen years of Conservative rule, the Labour Party is in a buoyant mood. In Wales, the electoral map almost mirrors the red, yellow and green of a Welsh football bucket hat, with the blue being eradicated and Wales becoming a Tory-free zone. Labour increased its number of seats by six to finish with a total of twenty-seven, while Plaid Cymru achieved one of its best results, winning four seats. After a wipeout in 2017, the Liberal Democrats regained a foothold in Wales once more by winning the new constituency of Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe. Although the party did not win any seats, it was also a good night for Reform who came second in several constituencies and finished third overall in terms of vote share.

Welsh Labour leader Vaughan Gething was likely feeling a sense of relief after a difficult few months that has seen him face mounting criticism for a series of controversies. However, while Labour was successful in terms of the number of seats won in Wales, digging deeper into the results suggests that the story might not be as rosy for the party. While Labour’s vote share increased by 1.6% across the UK, in Wales it actually fell by 3.9%. In some of its strongholds, the party saw substantial decreases in vote share, with Plaid Cymru and the Greens eating into the left-wing vote and increasing their shares by 4.9% and 3.7% respectively.

Nonetheless, newly-appointed Secretary of State for Wales Jo Stevens hailed the result as an opportunity to have “two Labour governments, one at each end of the M4, working in an atmosphere of trust and respect and collaboration rather than constant frictions”. The result, she argued, would “deliver better outcomes for Wales”. 

While there are many threads to unravel from the results, it is worth focusing on this aspect of Labour’s victory. As we move into a period of Labour governments in both Cardiff and London for the first time since 2010, what will the relationship between the two administrations look like? Will we see a new period of cooperation that can lead to improvements in Wales’ struggling public services, or are we likely to see emerging tensions?

The end of clear red water?

In the early years of devolution, First Minister Rhodri Morgan attempted to put ‘clear red water’ between Labour in Wales and Labour at Westminster. He argued that policy decisions in Wales needed to be geared towards the nation’s distinct socio-economic circumstances. Furthermore, Welsh Labour, he insisted, was instilled with values that were uniquely Welsh, differing from the market-centred approach to public services being taken by New Labour in London, and instead reflecting ‘classic Labour’ values.

Rather than putting clear red water between Welsh and UK Labour, a distinct message was articulated by Welsh Labour politicians throughout the campaign with great discipline and consistency: “Two Labour governments; working together for Wales’ and Britain’s Future”. Rather than putting ideological distance between the two branches of the party, Welsh Labour has focused on unity and cooperation.

Despite these hopes, tensions remain. As I have written elsewhere, Starmer has insisted that the spending taps will not be turned on, which will limit the amount of extra funding that Wales will receive. If this is the case, the question arises as to how having a Labour government in Westminster will aid the Welsh Government, particularly when it comes to public services. The Welsh Health Secretary Eluned Morgan drew criticism for campaigning with a ‘modernise our NHS’ sign, despite health being devolved to Wales. With little new money likely to be freed up by a UK government, Welsh Labour needs to look to itself to find ways to modernise the NHS, rather than relying on Labour being in power at Westminster. After emphasising the benefits of having two Labour governments, the party will face greater scrutiny to deliver on its promises.

Devolution divides

Every political party contains within it competing ideological tendencies. Labour is no different. However, ideological disputes take on different dimensions in a multi-level party. As David Moon has demonstrated, two distinct ideological tendencies have emerged within Welsh Labour: the pro-devolution tendency, which argues for greater devolution and recognition of Welsh difference, and the unionist tendency, which is predominantly made up of Welsh MPs and has tended to be more sceptical towards these demands. Despite Labour figures pointing to the necessity and opportunity of collaboration, there are signs that the antagonisms present within the multi-level party could emerge in the near future. While the Welsh First Minister has been the most powerful Labour politician in the UK, now, with Labour being in power in Westminster, the unionist wing of the party will likely feel emboldened.

One area where this might reveal itself is the future of the UK constitution. Even before the election campaign began, differences of opinion on this issue emerged between competing tendencies within Welsh Labour. The greatest sticking point appears to be the devolution of justice, the policy of Welsh Labour, a personal ambition of Mark Drakeford, and supported by Vaughan Gething in his leadership manifesto.[1] However, Gordon Brown’s report on the constitution, commissioned by the UK Labour Party, fell short of promising these powers, while earlier this year, Jo Stevens rejected calls for the devolution of justice. In his first few days in office, Keir Starmer has been vocal in his support for devolving significant powers to the regions of England, but the variance in what Welsh and UK Labour are offering in terms of Welsh devolution has the potential to incite future clashes. Additionally, while the Welsh Government has called for Wales to be given a fair share of funding for HS2, Jo Stevens has ruled out the prospect of Wales receiving this money.

Two Labour governments, shared problems

Before these tensions unravel, the question of Vaughan Gething’s future as First Minister still hangs in the air. Despite assurances from Starmer and Stevens that Gething has their full support, Labour should be concerned about how recent controversies are influencing voters’ perceptions of the party in Wales. Confidence in Gething amongst the public has plummeted, while the First Minister has already lost a vote of confidence in the Senedd. Furthermore, after Plaid Cymru pulled out of the cooperation agreement, it is difficult to see how the Welsh Government can achieve its legislative programme over the next couple of years. Opposition parties such as Plaid Cymru will be hopeful of future gains in the 2026 Senedd election.

Looking ahead, Labour’s election success conceals something deeper going on beneath the surface. While two governments working together can prove fruitful, future antagonisms are not easily avoided.
 

[1] Now deleted from his campaign website