By Nye Davies

Following her election as Welsh Labour leader, Eluned Morgan pledged to spend the summer listening to people across Wales. After a period of turmoil and political scandal that saw Vaughan Gething resign as First Minister after just four months in charge, recent polling suggests that the party could be on course for a difficult Senedd election in 2026. 

Before Morgan was elected unopposed, there were calls within the party for an extensive debate over its future. Former Transport minister Lee Waters stressed the need to “renew in office”, calling for a leadership contest to trigger a debate on the party’s future. While that debate did not take place, Morgan’s promised listening exercise could be viewed as a commitment to think through the challenges the Welsh Labour government faces.

But will this be enough to renew the party? Gething’s leadership troubles were not isolated; Welsh Labour’s falling support and the rise of parties such as Plaid Cymru and Reform suggest that Welsh Labour’s century-long dominance of Welsh politics might be under threat. 

Renewal and Party Dominance

Political parties must continuously adapt to changing circumstances. Steve Buckler and David Dolowitz (2009) identified four key imperatives of successful renewal: maintaining continuity of identity, contrasting the new ideology with the past that is now seen as outdated, adapting to new social and economic conditions, and gaining a rhetorical advantage over opponents. As we shall see, all of these are important considerations for Welsh Labour. 

Buckler and Dolowitz also noted that acts of renewal are most often responses to failure, such as defeat in elections. Yet, the same need for renewal is present in dominant parties that have enjoyed sustained periods of success. Françoise Boucek (2012) argued that while all parties become vulnerable over time to internal strife, factionalism, and complacency, dominance is likely to exacerbate these problems. Furthermore, while the collapse of a once dominant party is often the consequence of longer-term factors, it can come to a head in a single event, with political scandals often featuring as one of the main symptoms of this. Additionally, intra-party strife has the potential to cause political earthquakes, with dominance leading to governing parties becoming increasingly fractious. 

To remain dominant, political parties must evolve without losing their core identity. Welsh Labour’s ability to adapt after worse-than-expected results in the 1999 Senedd election, as well as the leadership crisis that followed under Alun Michael, offers insight into such potential strategies. Rhodri Morgan’s ‘clear red water’ emphasised values that differentiated Welsh Labour from UK Labour, being based on universalist principles associated with ideas of Welshness. This strategy was highly effective in appealing to a wider voting coalition, becoming even more valuable after the Conservative-led government took power in Westminster in 2010, with new First Minister Carwyn Jones positioning Welsh Labour as Wales’ protector.

Challenges Facing Eluned Morgan

Eluned Morgan’s leadership faces different challenges from those of her predecessors Rhodri Morgan’s era. Firstly, recent policy controversies, such as the backlash over the extension of 20MPH speed limits, have led to public dissatisfaction and criticism from within the party. Morgan has started to acknowledge these issues, signalling that the implementation of certain policies could have been better handled. Self-criticism may be necessary for Welsh Labour to break with aspects of its past, but such decisions have already drawn criticism from the authors of those policies, including the former First Minister Mark Drakeford himself (back in cabinet as Finance and Welsh Language Secretary). As Buckler and Dolowitz warned, renewal risks a party breaking so much with its past that it loses core support and moves away from what made it successful.

Further, while Welsh Labour has positioned itself as the protector of Welsh interests against the UK government, the election of a Labour government in Westminster changes the political landscape. Welsh Labour politicians have argued that having two Labour governments in Cardiff Bay and Westminster will have great benefits for Wales. However, there are risks in aligning too closely with UK Labour. Austerity measures look set to persist, limiting the Welsh Government's ability to deliver tangible improvements to public services. Eluned Morgan has even stated that she has little influence over Keir Starmer. If public dissatisfaction with health, education, and other services continues, where does Welsh Labour lay the blame for its record in government?

The Need for a Clear Vision

This is where renewal is so important for a party that has been in power for so long. If the party is unable to offer a new vision to voters with a new set of policies that tackle the nation’s issues, then other parties are likely to take its place. As Buckler and Dolowitz suggested, radical renewal becomes necessary when a party’s ideology no longer aligns with current social, economic, and political conditions. Resting on continuity and unity, without setting out a clear vision of what the party intends to achieve, risks ideological and policy inertia. 

Eluned Morgan’s desire to listen to the public lacks the substance needed for such a renewal. Morgan’s listening exercise has been criticised as a publicity stunt, while internal party calls for a deeper debate about the party’s future have not been fully addressed. 

There are many available options for engaging in this renewal such as internal party working groups, party conference, and engagement with think-tanks and third-sector organisations. Even something as sweeping as Neil Kinnock’s policy review in the 1980s could help the party have that debate concerning its future. Eluned Morgan might even choose to outline a new ‘clear red water’, defining clearly the values and principles that underpin her government’s policies. While this may be dismissed as rhetorical, the rhetoric of party leaders is important in framing both the party’s policy agenda and its perception within the public. 

Whatever option is chosen, new policies and new ways of thinking are needed. As Morgan leads Welsh Labour into the 2026 election, she must steer the party through a challenging period of economic constraints, rising political competition, and potential voter fatigue. Welsh Labour’s future will depend on whether it can renew itself and offer a credible vision for changing a nation it has governed for 25 years.

References 

Boucek, Françoise. 2012. Factional Politics : How Dominant Parties Implode or Stabilize (Palgrave Macmillan: Basingstoke).

Buckler, Steve, and David P. Dolowitz. 2009. 'Ideology, party identity and renewal', Journal of Political Ideologies, 14: 11-30.