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Daniel Cetrà discusses yesterday's gathering in Catalonia. He explains that the Catalan pro-independence camp remains highly mobilised and that the Catalan and Spanish political situations are complex and interconnected.

Hundreds of thousands of Catalans gathered yesterday in five cities, including Barcelona, to demand independence. It is the fifth consecutive year that, on the national day of Catalonia, the pro-independence camp takes the streets in huge numbers.

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My estimates of the implied probability of a “leave” outcome in the EU referendum using the bookies odds from have attracted much comment. Some critics seem to have a weak understanding of the nature of prediction markets. For example, the argument is put that probabilities derived from the betting odds are of no value because punters are not a representative sample of the population.

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Latest blogs

  • 22nd March 2018

    The devolved legislatures’ ‘continuity’ legislation prepares their statute books for Brexit in the event of an ongoing impasse with the UK Government over the so-called ‘power grab’ in the EU Withdrawal Bill. Professor Nicola McEwen suggests these ongoing discussions and debates provide insight into the challenges and opportunities likely to shape ongoing intergovernmental relationships.

  • 22nd March 2018

    Two decades have passed since there was last a serious consideration of how the UK uses referendums. In the light of the Referendums of recent years, our colleagues at the Constitution Unit at UCL established the Independent Commission on Referendums. Ahead of a public event in Edinburgh, the Commission's research director, Dr Alan Renwick, explains its terms of reference.

  • 9th March 2018

    Stephen Hornsby, a partner at Goodman Derrick LLP, comments on Michael Keating's recent paper on the policy making implications of Brexit for agriculture in the UK.

  • 9th March 2018

    In response to the apparent surge in support for Corsican nationalists, President Macron has made it clear that Corsica will not be allowed to distinguish itself further from the rest of France. However, says Dr Alexendra Remond, support for autonomy may be symptomatic more of disenchantment with the status quo than of growing Corsican nationalism.

  • 2nd March 2018

    With little enough fanfare, Cabinet Office Minister David Liddington MP set out how Britain will operate post-Brexit. Prof Michael Kenny and Jack Sheldon consider what he had to say.

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