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My estimates of the implied probability of a “leave” outcome in the EU referendum using the bookies odds from Oddschecker.com have attracted much comment. Some critics seem to have a weak understanding of the nature of prediction markets. For example, the argument is put that probabilities derived from the betting odds are of no value because punters are not a representative sample of the population.

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First time voters in the most recent election to the Northern Ireland Assembly were born in the weeks and months following the Good Friday Agreement. Professor Cathy Gormley-Heenan of the University of Ulster considers whether change is the new constant as #GFAgen comes of age.
 
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The SNP machine has been quick to point out that the party has just won its (and any party’s) highest ever share of constituency votes.   The translation of constituency votes into seats highlights the disproportionality of that element of the system: 46.5% delivered 81% of seats.  This compares with the result from last year’s Scottish results in the UK general election when the SNP won 95% of seats with 50% of the vote.  But this was not a first-past-the-post election.  The SNP advanced in the constituencies but fell back on the lists.
 
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If you’re staying up to watch the results of the elections tonight, you’ll have their choice of friends and fellows of the Centre to keep you company through the night and into Friday. 
 
You can join us on: 
 
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