My estimates of the implied probability of a “leave” outcome in the EU referendum using the bookies odds from Oddschecker.com have attracted much comment. Some critics seem to have a weak understanding of the nature of prediction markets. For example, the argument is put that probabilities derived from the betting odds are of no value because punters are not a representative sample of the population.
James Mitchell discusses how at first sight, the Tories look to be stronger after the 2016 election than the SNP after 2003. This post originally appeared on Academy of Government @ Edinburgh University
On the face of it, the results of the Scottish Parliament elections on May 5th 2016 do not look promising for gender equality. Overall women now form 35% of Holyrood, exaqctly the same as in 2011, still down from the 2003 high of 40% but the shift to minority government offers some hope for progress..