Public Attitudes

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John Curtice discusses the most recent polls and how in the final week of the campaign we may secure a clearer and more consistent picture of just where the referendum race stands.

The last ten days have transformed perceptions of the referendum race. Although they persistently and consistently disagreed about the size of its lead, every independently commissioned poll had hitherto put No ahead. Few expected anything other than a majority vote to stay in the Union.

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Over the past few months a number of world leaders have felt compelled to comment on the independence debate in Scotland and the UK. The Australian and Canadian prime ministers, Tony Abbott and Stephen Harper (both countries themselves have large Scottish populations), the Chinese premiere Li Keqiang, the Indian foreign minister Sushma Swaraj, the former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt and the US President Barack Obama to name a few. So what might be prompting such interventions?

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Charlie Jeffery weighs in on the latest YouGov poll and proposals for further devolution.

With ten days to go the debate is suddenly transformed. YouGov's latest polling has set the pro-independence cat among the pro-union pigeons. Its poll last week showed a rapid narrowing to 53% No and 47% Yes, and the latest one for the Sunday Times on 7 September put Yes ahead at 51% to 49%.

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  • 16th October 2018

    Bavaria’s long-dominant party, the conservative Christian Social Union (CSU), has reached its worst election result in 60 years. As well as causing a headache for Angela Merkel, argues Patrick Utz, this political earthquake reveals Bavaria’s predicament between regionalism and populism,.

  • 15th October 2018

    As the buildup to the EU Council meeting reaches fever pitch, Richard Parry explains that deals at dawn may work in Brussels but they don't always play to the home crowd.

  • 13th October 2018

    Theresa May’s efforts to keep her DUP allies onside may, suggests Prof Nicola McEwen, end up easing Nicola Sturgeon’s path to independence following any subsequent referendum on the subject.

  • 12th October 2018

    The Commission on Justice in Wales, chaired by Lord Thomas of Cwmgiedd, will further clarify the legal and political identity of Wales within the UK constitution. Doing so, explains Prof Dan Wincott, will also bring clarity to the enduring significance of other territorial legal jurisdictions.

  • 11th October 2018

    The Brexit and Environment network has spent the last year researching the implications of Brexit for environmental policy, with a particular focus on the devolved nations, which are all too often overlooked in these debates. They have developed three reports that detail their findings from meetings with stakeholders in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, and they bring together insights from these in an overarching UK report. In this blog post, they summarise their key findings and recommendations.

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