Public Attitudes

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John Curtice discusses the most recent polls and how in the final week of the campaign we may secure a clearer and more consistent picture of just where the referendum race stands.

The last ten days have transformed perceptions of the referendum race. Although they persistently and consistently disagreed about the size of its lead, every independently commissioned poll had hitherto put No ahead. Few expected anything other than a majority vote to stay in the Union.

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Over the past few months a number of world leaders have felt compelled to comment on the independence debate in Scotland and the UK. The Australian and Canadian prime ministers, Tony Abbott and Stephen Harper (both countries themselves have large Scottish populations), the Chinese premiere Li Keqiang, the Indian foreign minister Sushma Swaraj, the former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt and the US President Barack Obama to name a few. So what might be prompting such interventions?

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Charlie Jeffery weighs in on the latest YouGov poll and proposals for further devolution.

With ten days to go the debate is suddenly transformed. YouGov's latest polling has set the pro-independence cat among the pro-union pigeons. Its poll last week showed a rapid narrowing to 53% No and 47% Yes, and the latest one for the Sunday Times on 7 September put Yes ahead at 51% to 49%.

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  • 10th August 2018

    Brexit is re-making the UK’s constitution under our noses. The territorial constitution is particularly fragile. Pursuing Brexit, Theresa May’s government has stumbled into deep questions about devolution.

  • 8th August 2018

    The UK in a Changing Europe has formed a new Brexit Policy Panel (BPP). The BPP is a cross-disciplinary group of over 100 leading social scientists created to provide ongoing analysis of where we have got to in the Brexit process, and to forecast where we are headed. Members of the UK in a Changing Europe Brexit Policy Panel complete a monthly survey addressing three key areas of uncertainty around Brexit: if —and when—the UK will leave the EU; how Brexit will affect British politics; and what our relationship with the EU is likely to look like in the future. The CCC participates on the Panel.

  • 2nd August 2018

    The House of Commons Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee issued its report ‘Devolution and Exiting the EU: reconciling differences and building strong relationships’. Discussing its contents, Professor Nicola McEwen suggests that the report includes some practical recommendations, some of which were informed by CCC research. It also shines a light on some of the more difficult challenges ahead.

  • 31st July 2018

    The politicisation of Brexit, combined with deteriorating relations between London and Dublin, has created a toxic atmosphere in Northern Ireland, says Mary Murphy, which will require imagination and possibly new institutions to resolve.

  • 25th July 2018

    Given that there are many policy differences between Northern Ireland and other parts of the UK, asks Jonathan Evershed, why has customs policy been singled out as a red line by Unionists?

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