Indyref

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Nicola Sturgeon vowed to explore all options to keep Scotland in the EU. Eve Hepburn asks, what might these options be and how likely are they to be successful?

IN the aftermath of the Brexit vote, Nicola Sturgeon has stated that the prospect of taking Scotland out of the EU against its will is “democratically unacceptable”. The First Minister vowed to explore all options to keep Scotland in the EU. But what might these options be? And how likely are they to be successful?

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The question of Scottish independence has taken centre stage in the public debate since the Brexit vote. England and Wales have voted to leave the EU, but Scotland and Northern Ireland have voted to remain. Together with this differing outcome, the absence of a post-referendum plan – and of any sign of leadership – on the part of the UK government create a favourable climate for the SNP. But what does it all mean for those campaigning for Scottish independence? Craig McAngus explains.
 
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Last Thursday’s referendum may have answered one question, but it has spawned many more. How does the UK leave the EU? When do we leave? What does leave mean? And what does it all mean for Scotland?

In theory, the ‘how’, at least, is clear. The process is set out in Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union – the EU’s constitution. The UK Government must give formal notice of its intention to leave to the European Council (the other members). This kick-starts negotiations on the terms of exit.

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My gut says that there will be a second referendum on Scottish independence and that Yes will win comfortably. Yet, predicting political events and outcomes right now is like predicting the weather. The result is not inevitable, largely because the key factors prompting people to vote No have not gone away – and, in some ways, the No case is now stronger. I’ll explain this by (a) comparing the likely Yes and No stories during the next campaign, and (b) speculating wildly about the extent to which key parties will campaign as hard for No in the second referendum.

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  • 10th August 2018

    Brexit is re-making the UK’s constitution under our noses. The territorial constitution is particularly fragile. Pursuing Brexit, Theresa May’s government has stumbled into deep questions about devolution.

  • 8th August 2018

    The UK in a Changing Europe has formed a new Brexit Policy Panel (BPP). The BPP is a cross-disciplinary group of over 100 leading social scientists created to provide ongoing analysis of where we have got to in the Brexit process, and to forecast where we are headed. Members of the UK in a Changing Europe Brexit Policy Panel complete a monthly survey addressing three key areas of uncertainty around Brexit: if —and when—the UK will leave the EU; how Brexit will affect British politics; and what our relationship with the EU is likely to look like in the future. The CCC participates on the Panel.

  • 2nd August 2018

    The House of Commons Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee issued its report ‘Devolution and Exiting the EU: reconciling differences and building strong relationships’. Discussing its contents, Professor Nicola McEwen suggests that the report includes some practical recommendations, some of which were informed by CCC research. It also shines a light on some of the more difficult challenges ahead.

  • 31st July 2018

    The politicisation of Brexit, combined with deteriorating relations between London and Dublin, has created a toxic atmosphere in Northern Ireland, says Mary Murphy, which will require imagination and possibly new institutions to resolve.

  • 25th July 2018

    Given that there are many policy differences between Northern Ireland and other parts of the UK, asks Jonathan Evershed, why has customs policy been singled out as a red line by Unionists?

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