Nicola Sturgeon’s letter of 31 March 2017 to Theresa May stated that ‘the Scottish Parliament has now determined by a clear majority that there should be an independence referendum’. That would now be the common assumption. But in fact the motion does not mention independence, let alone specify whether what is envisaged is independence within the European Union.
In the event of another independence campaign, says Ailsa Henderson, both sides will need to find some answers.
The First Minister’s announcement that the SNP government intends to seek a section 30 order to hold a second independence referendum contained within it a few hints about the key messages of a future Yes campaign.
In 2014 they had one key weakness – arguments about risk – and one key strength – arguments about a better society. The speech shows an effort to neutralise the weakness and play up the strength.
The clear difference between Scotland's Remain vote and the preference south of the border has rekindled the independence debate but, says Craig McAngus, all is not entirely straightforward for the SNP.
Brexit may open a new constituency of support for Scottish independence but, says Nicola McEwen, the implications of the change for independence are about far more than political arithmetic.
In September 2014, Scots voted by a clear majority to remain within the United Kingdom. Less than two years on, might a vote for the UK to leave the European Union trigger a second independence referendum and the potential break-up of the UK?