Economy

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Scotland Institute publishes report on Scotland's share of the UK's debt

The Scotland Institute has issued a report authored by Jonathan Price titled Debt and Destiny: An assessment of an independent Scotland’s fair share of the United Kingdom’s national debt and the impact it could have on Scotland’s future.

The report attempts to address the lack of discussion around Scotland's share of the UK's debt in the event of independence. The institute's chairman Dr Azeem Ibrahim notes in a blog on Scots Politics that:

What set-up costs would an independent Scotland face? The debate continues.

The work of LSE'S Professor Patrick Dunleavy was cited in a HM Treasury report on the set-up costs of an independent Scotland. In a blog for LSE British Politics and Policy, Professor Dunleavy challenged the use of his work, focused on the cost of setting up or substantially revamping a Whitehall department, saying:

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Reindustrialising Scotland for the 21st Century: A Sustainable Industrial Strategy for a Modern, Independent Nation

The Scottish Government set out in Scotland’s Future and Building Security and Creating Opportunity: Economic Policy Opportunities in an Independent Scotland how the full economic policy levers of independence could be used to create a more successful and fairer economy.

This paper builds on a key theme set out in both reports - the objective of rebalancing and reindustrialising the Scottish economy.

IFS: Spending cuts or tax increases would be needed to pay for Independence White Paper giveaways

New calculations – based on forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) – suggest that an independent Scotland would face a budget deficit of 5.5% of GDP (£8.6 billion in today’s terms) in its first year of independence were it to inherit a population share of the UK’s national debt. This would not be sustainable for any prolonged period. Any upside surprise on oil revenues would help, for a while, but as recent experience demonstrates, these revenues can also disappoint.

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  • 20th July 2018

    Richard Parry reviews a fast-evolving situation as the march of time and need to reconcile rhetoric and practicality constrain policy-makers

  • 13th July 2018

    The White Paper published this week talks about the UK Government making ‘sovereign decisions’ to adopt European rules but, as we know from the experience of Norway and Switzerland, this can be an illusory sovereignty when the costs of deviating from the rules is exclusion from the single market or European programmes. CCC Director Professor Michael Keating looks at whether the UK is ready for this kind of deal.

  • 12th July 2018

    Last week the government released its fisheries white paper. While most of the fisheries and Brexit debate centres on quotas and access to waters, there is also an important devolution dimension. Brexit already has profound consequences for the UK’s devolution settlement and fisheries policy is one example of this. So, in addition to communicating its overall vision for post-Brexit fisheries policy, the white paper was also an opportunity for the government to set out how it would see that policy working in the devolved UK.

  • 4th July 2018

    At the same time as Parliament prepares to ‘take back control’ from Brussels, the executive is in fact accruing to itself further control over the legislative process. CCC Fellow Professor Stephen Tierney addresses a number of trends – only some of which are a direct consequence of the unique circumstances of Brexit – which suggest a deeper realignment of institutional power within the constitution and a consequent diminution of Parliament’s legislative power.

  • 27th June 2018

    Faced with a choice between splitting her Cabinet into winners and losers, Theresa May has sought to keep the Brexit crap game going. She does this by avoiding betting on either a hard or soft Brexit. Professor Richard Rose of Strathclyde looks at the high stakes outcomes facing the Prime Minister. .

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