Economy

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Voter attitudes to risk and independence referendum choices

People who are more willing to take risks are more likely to vote ‘Yes’ in Scotland’s referendum, according to researchers at the University of Stirling.

Professors David Bell and Liam Delaney, and researcher Michael McGoldrick from the University of Stirling’s Management School, looked at individual traits and constitutional change in Scotland.

The ‘border effect’ is the observation that trade is higher within countries than between countries. If in the long run, the border between an independent Scotland and the rest of UK border affects trade like the current border between the Republic of Ireland and the UK, then we estimate costs at 5.5% of Scotland's GDP. However, Scotland could more than counteract that adverse effect if it achieves a level of trade with the rest of the world typical of the small countries of North West Europe.

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Academics were asked to evaluate the case for Union and share their thoughts on what might unfold if Scotland votes NO. With this in mind, Jo Armstrong writes on the economic situation of post-referendum Scotland within the Union.

Scotland’s growth prospects in the next two years appear relatively buoyant, with the Fraser of Allander forecasting 2.3% for 2014 and 2015, almost double that in 2013. Employment is growing, unemployment continues to fall and, with this continued economic growth, employment levels are forecast to keep rising and unemployment fall.

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Scotland analysis: Work and pensions paper


This paper examines what Scottish independence would mean for social security – including state, private and public sector pensions – and supporting people into work. It sets out the current UK-wide arrangements and how they provide targeted and effective support to pensioners, jobseekers, employers and those needing support from the social security system. It highlights:

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