Arkadiusz Wiśniowski, Research Fellow at the ESRC Research Centre for Population Change (CPC) at the University of Southampton was published by the Washington Post's The Monkey Cage blog. In the post, he shares the work conducted by the Centre and outlines the model used to predict the referendum result.
'While the polls have fluctuated quite a lot, and there has been intense debate over polling methods producing different results for the Yes and No camps, the No campaign has been in the lead in the vast majority. As part of the ESRC funded project The Future of the UK and Scotland at the ESRC Centre for Population Change, we have collected all polling data about the referendum so far'
'Our forecast suggests a close result, which might surprise some readers given that support for independence has never been ahead in the polls. However, this reflects the narrowing of the polls in the past few months, and our model picks up this trend – and projects it forward'
The work conducted by Arkadiusz and the team finds that at this moment:
'Despite the preponderance of polling pointing towards a victory for the No campaign, our model suggests that the result is still too close to call. As the referendum fast approaches and the campaign intensifies, everything is still to play for'