David Bell

David Bell's picture
University of Stirling
Phone Number: 
+44 (0)1786 467486
Email Address: 

Beliefs about how the Scottish economy may perform after independence will be critical to the outcome of the 2014 referendum on Scottish independence. Aside from its effect on income, another major concern for voters will be whether an independent Scottish economy will be able or wish to support the level of public services they currently enjoy. Taxpayers will want to know how taxes may change to pay for public services after independence.

This fellowship will produce original research looking at fiscal aspects of the constitutional change debate in the UK. It will encompass both taxes and spending, and will offer insights into questions such as: How would public services be funded in an independent Scotland? Would current levels of services – and the taxation that funds them – be similar, or vary up or down?

Fellowship website: Scottish Fiscal and Economic Studies (ScotFES)

Project Job Role: 
Professor of Economics


View recent blog entries
Member for
4 years 8 months

Posts by this author:

“If you're not confused, you're not paying attention.” Tom Peters Following Brexit, the UK will establish a new set of trade relationships. Agreements about the conduct of agricultural trade will form an important part of this new system. The devolved territories – Scotland, Wales and Northern Irela... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
Since the EU referendum, the post-Brexit future for agricultural, regional and rural policies in the UK have been hotly debated. Few of these debates have taken account of the role of the devolved governments in relation to these policies. Although agriculture, regional and rural policy have been he... Read more
Post type: Publication
On the eve of the EU referendum, David Bell sorts what we know from what we can only surmise.    Tomorrow, we will vote on whether the UK should leave the EU. This is a momentous decision which will affect both current and future generations living on these islands   A recurrent theme has been the l... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
My estimates of the implied probability of a “leave” outcome in the EU referendum using the bookies odds from Oddschecker.com have attracted much comment. Some critics seem to have a weak understanding of the nature of prediction markets. For example, the argument is put that probabilities derived f... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
How closely is our economy aligned with the EU? What do we get out of it? – How much do we pay? How much do we receive? This chapter analyses the economic position of the UK – and particularly Scotland – within the EU. Its geographic position is clearly on the periphery. But at least on one importan... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
New analysis by Prof David Bell, a CCC Fellow based at the University of Stirling, has concluded that those benefits newly devolved under the Scotland Act 2016, “are typically older, more likely to be single following the death of a partner, not in employment and heavily dependent on benefits and pe... Read more
Post type: Publication
While pollsters have the result of the UK's EU referendum as too close to call, the bookies have Remain comfortably ahead. Prof David Bell will be monitoring the odds through the remaining campaign with results updated here. Updated chart - 16 June 2016. Update, April 26 The latest data from the bet... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
The recent GERS figures for Scotland’s fiscal balance in 2014-15 were entirely predictable. For the first two quarters of that financial year, oil prices averaged around $100 per barrel. Revenues from North Sea oil were flowing strongly. During the next two quarters, the oil price averaged around $5... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
So the fiscal framework has been agreed. Or has the can just been kicked down the road? Both interpretations are consistent with last week’s last-minute agreement between the Scottish and UK governments. There is now no significant obstacle to the passage of the Scotland Bill. As a result the Scotti... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
The negotiations around adjustments to Scotland's block grant have been the subject of months of talks between the Scottish and UK governments. David Bell, David Eiser and David Phillips set out the main points of contention in this extended blog.    Introduction The UK and Scottish Governments have... Read more
Post type: Blog entry


Latest blogs

  • 22nd March 2018

    The devolved legislatures’ ‘continuity’ legislation prepares their statute books for Brexit in the event of an ongoing impasse with the UK Government over the so-called ‘power grab’ in the EU Withdrawal Bill. Professor Nicola McEwen suggests these ongoing discussions and debates provide insight into the challenges and opportunities likely to shape ongoing intergovernmental relationships.

  • 22nd March 2018

    Two decades have passed since there was last a serious consideration of how the UK uses referendums. In the light of the Referendums of recent years, our colleagues at the Constitution Unit at UCL established the Independent Commission on Referendums. Ahead of a public event in Edinburgh, the Commission's research director, Dr Alan Renwick, explains its terms of reference.

  • 9th March 2018

    Stephen Hornsby, a partner at Goodman Derrick LLP, comments on Michael Keating's recent paper on the policy making implications of Brexit for agriculture in the UK.

  • 9th March 2018

    In response to the apparent surge in support for Corsican nationalists, President Macron has made it clear that Corsica will not be allowed to distinguish itself further from the rest of France. However, says Dr Alexendra Remond, support for autonomy may be symptomatic more of disenchantment with the status quo than of growing Corsican nationalism.

  • 2nd March 2018

    With little enough fanfare, Cabinet Office Minister David Liddington MP set out how Britain will operate post-Brexit. Prof Michael Kenny and Jack Sheldon consider what he had to say.

Read More Posts