Centre on Constitutional Change's blog
From UK in a Changing Europe
Our first monthly survey shows significant uncertainty about Brexit. However, some key themes emerge:
Our panel put the prospect of no deal at around 50%.
The UK is highly likely to leave on 29 March 2019
A second referendum is seen as highly unlikely.
The October EU Council deadline is unlikely to be met.
The transition period will need to be extended beyond December 2020.
Last week the government released its fisheries white paper. While most of the fisheries and Brexit debate centres on quotas and access to waters, there is also an important devolution dimension. Brexit already has profound consequences for the UK’s devolution settlement and fisheries policy is one example of this.
The end of Free Movement following Brexit will have a dramatic impact on the ability of all areas of the UK to attract low-skilled labour. Dr Sarah Kyambi considers the impact of the change in Scotland and whether now is the time to devolve immigration policy.
The Scottish and Welsh Governments worked together closely during their negotiations with the UK Government over those aspects of the EU (Withdrawal) Bill that related to devolution. Despite ultimately choosing different paths, say Hedydd Phylip and Greg Davies, this spirit of cooperation looks set to continue.
On 8 May the UK’s House of Lords passed an amendment to require the House of Commons to vote on remaining in the European Economic Area (EEA), the possibility of Britain adopting the so-called ‘Norway model’ is back on the agenda of British politics. Here the authors of Squaring the Circle on Brexit: Could the Norway Model Work?, John Erik Fossum and Hans Petter Graver, give some background to Norway’s relationship with the European Union and reveal the truth behind some common myths about the Norway model.
Twenty years after the Belfast agreement was signed, new research identifies an enduring legacy.
Fresh analysis of the Belfast or Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland has revealed its lasting impact on subsequent peace deals worldwide.
Key elements of the settlement between Nationalists, Republicans and Unionists and the Irish and British governments – agreed in Belfast 20 years ago – have been instrumental in other peace negotiations, the study reveals.
Stephen Hornsby, a partner at Goodman Derrick LLP, comments on Michael Keating's recent paper on the policy making implications of Brexit for agriculture in the UK.
Amidst the current, noisy, political debate about ‘bonanzas’ and ‘power grabs’ there is some measure of consensus between the UK and Scottish Governments as regards the need for (and value of) UK-wide ‘common frameworks’ post-Brexit, especially in relation to the functioning of markets within the UK. However, as Shepherd and Wedderburn's Gordon Downie explains, what might be described as the opening negotiating positions of the UK and Scottish Governments reveal wide differences on the scope and content of these new common frameworks, and on the constitutional mechanics that should u