Angus Armstrong

Angus Armstrong's picture
Dr
Angus
Armstrong
Job Title: 
Head of Macroeconomics and Finance Group
Organisation: 
National Institute of Economic and Social Research
Phone Number: 
+44 (0)207 654 1925
Email Address: 
Biography: 

The Scottish independence debate is about choices. All of the economic choices have trade-offs between the pros and cons. The most important choice is which currency an independent Scotland would use. The objective of this Fellowship is to stimulate an open and informed debate on the coherence and consequences of alternative currency and fiscal arrangements for Scotland.

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5 years 6 months

Posts by this author:

The Scottish Government's new capacity to borrow is a vital, if little-discussed, power. However, says Angus Armstrong, the details of how this will work may have been dodged by the Smith Commission but cannot long be avoided by the Scottish Government and HM Treasury.    Scotland’s future borrowing... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
The devolution of income tax has received considerable attention in the discussion surrounding the Smith Commission. In the fourth of the extracts from our recent e-book, Dr Angus Armstrong argues that devolving taxation without borrowing powers will leave nobody happy.   As things stand, of the pub... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
Two points are clear from the Scottish referendum debate. First, there are certain capabilities which the UK provides that are invaluable to all constituent nations. In particular, a successful currency union and a seat at the top table of the world’s leading international forums, such as the Europe... Read more
Post type: Publication
The debate over which currency an independent Scotland might use appears to have reached an impasse. The Scottish Government has stated that an independent Scotland would use sterling, and the UK Government (and the official opposition) has said unequivocally it would not participate in a formal  cu... Read more
Post type: Publication
If an independent Scotland chooses an informal currency union (called ‘dollarization’ or 'sterlingization') as Plan B, its financial institutions cannot be sure they will have access to emergency liquidity in the next financial crisis. This is likely to have important consequences for Scotland’s fin... Read more
Post type: News Article
Angus Armstrong reflects on the implications of projections made by HM Treasury and the Scottish Government for the 'dismal science' of economics. The publication of two official reports last week making apparently contradictory claims might appear to reflect badly on the 'dismal science' (economics... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
Statements from Scotland’s First Minister last week suggest that a Currency Plan B is beginning to emerge. It appears that the Scottish Government is committed to a sterling currency union regardless of the UK Government's view. The fall-back option then appears to be dollarization using sterling as... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
ESRC Fellow Angus Armstrong discusses currency options for an independent Scotland in the wake of Chancellor George Osborne's speech in Edinburgh.Chancellor Osborne today ruled out a formal currency union with an independent Scotland. What would be the Scottish Government's next move? We expect the... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
by Angus Armstrong, ESRC Fellow, National Institute of Economic and Social Research Currency arrangements that survive the test of time need to be coherent in all circumstances and without ambiguity. Part of any robust union is that there is a full commitment to make it work. The White Paper restate... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
ESRC Fellow Angus Armstrong and his team at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research have launched an animated film that gives a new twist to the currency debate and the independence referendum. Dr Armstrong explains: "We were determined to explain the currency question to a wider audi... Read more
Post type: News Article

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Latest blogs

  • 22nd January 2019

    The UK is increasingly polarised by Brexit identities and they seem to have become stronger than party identities, a new academic report finds. Only one in 16 people did not have a Brexit identity, while more than one in five said they had no party identity. Sir John Curtice’s latest analysis of public opinion on a further referendum finds there has been no decisive shift in favour of another referendum. The report, Brexit and public opinion 2019, by The UK in a Changing Europe, provides an authoritative, comprehensive and up-to-date guide to public opinion on each of the key issues around Brexit. CCC Fellow, Dr Coree Brown Swan contributed a chapter on "the SNP, Brexit and the politics of independence"

  • 22nd January 2019

    In the papers accompanying the draft Environment (Principles and Governance) Bill published at the end of 2018, the UK Government says that it is “exploring opportunities to co-design the final proposals with the devolved administrations.” There are clear benefits in having strong co-operation and collaboration across the UK in the oversight of our environmental law and performance. Yet the challenge of finding a way forward in terms of working together is substantial since each part of the UK is in a different position at present. Given where things stand today, it may be better to accept that a good resolution is not possible immediately and to revisit the issue at a later stage - so long as there is a strong commitment to return and not allow interim arrangements to become fixed. Colin Reid, Professor of Environmental Law at the University of Dundee examines the issues.

  • 17th January 2019

    Richard Parry assesses a memorable day in UK parliamentary history as the Commons splits 432-202 on 15 January 2019 against the Government's recommended Brexit route. It was the most dramatic night at Westminster since the Labour government’s defeat on a confidence motion in 1979.

  • 17th January 2019

    What is the Irish government’s Brexit wish-list? The suggestion that Irish unity, as opposed to safeguarding political and economic stability, is the foremost concern of the Irish government is to misunderstand and misrepresent the motivations of this key Brexit stakeholder, writes Mary C. Murphy (University College Cork).

  • 17th January 2019

    Brexit is in trouble but not because of the Irish backstop, argues the CCC's Michael Keating.

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