Ailsa Henderson's blog

As polling companies try out different methodologies in the light of recent reviews of their practices, Ailsa Henderson explains how they determine who is likely to vote. 
 
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In the event of another independence campaign, says Ailsa Henderson, both sides will need to find some answers. 
 
The First Minister’s announcement that the SNP government intends to seek a section 30 order to hold a second independence referendum contained within it a few hints about the key messages of a future Yes campaign.  
 
In 2014 they had one key weakness – arguments about risk – and one key strength – arguments about a better society.  The speech shows an effort to neutralise the weakness and play up the strength.
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On the night of the 1995 Quebec independence referendum, twenty years ago yesterday, then Quebec premier Jacques Parizeau, who had campaigned for independence, suggested that the Yes side had been defeated by money and the ethnic vote, undoing decades of careful work on the part of the Parti Québécois (PQ) to emphasize its model of civic nationalism and inclusiveness.  Support has historically been low among Anglophone Quebecers and those Allophones whose mother tongue is neither English nor French.
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The most recent results of the Scottish Referendum Study have been widely discussed in the media. The research invetigated what motivated Scots to vote Yes or No in September's referemdum. We'll be following up with a blog outlining the significance of the results and will post the video of the launch of the report once it is avauilable. For now, here are the findings as they have been released to the media. 

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With two weeks to go until the independence referendum it is perhaps worth looking at what was happening in the final weeks of the 1995 referendum on sovereignty partnership in Quebec to see if there are any interesting parallels or useful lessons.

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As polling companies try out different methodologies in the light of recent reviews of their practices, Ailsa Henderson explains how they determine who is likely to vote.    Different polling companies weight their respondents by a range of demographic characteristic to ensure that their quota sampl... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
Whether GE2017 in Scotland is about Brexit or IndyRef rather depends on who you believe, says Ailsa Henderson.    Political parties in states where there are regional, linguistic or religious divisions face certain choices, including about their mode of organisation – to federalise or not – as well... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
In the event of another independence campaign, says Ailsa Henderson, both sides will need to find some answers.    The First Minister’s announcement that the SNP government intends to seek a section 30 order to hold a second independence referendum contained within it a few hints about the key messa... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
Abstract   Canada’s history has been marked by competing visions of the country and regional grievances about how the federation works. Multiple and frequently conflicting identities and interests have sustained these historical tensions. This study explores how the growing visible minority populati... Read more
Post type: Publication
On the night of the 1995 Quebec independence referendum, twenty years ago yesterday, then Quebec premier Jacques Parizeau, who had campaigned for independence, suggested that the Yes side had been defeated by money and the ethnic vote, undoing decades of careful work on the part of the Parti Québéco... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
The most recent results of the Scottish Referendum Study have been widely discussed in the media. The research invetigated what motivated Scots to vote Yes or No in September's referemdum. We'll be following up with a blog outlining the significance of the results and will post the video of the laun... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
Scotland’s big question was resolved on 18 September 2014. Early the next morning David Cameron opened up the English question, announcing: I have long believed that a crucial part missing from this national discussion is England. We have heard the voice of Scotland – and now the millions of voices... Read more
Post type: Publication
A poll probing attitudes to the Smith Commission and its terms of reference has found that 63% of Scots support the full devolution of both taxes and welfare benefits, including unemployment benefit[i]. There were also significant majorities for the devolution of pensions (58%), energy policy (57%)... Read more
Post type: News Article
With two weeks to go until the independence referendum it is perhaps worth looking at what was happening in the final weeks of the 1995 referendum on sovereignty partnership in Quebec to see if there are any interesting parallels or useful lessons. At this point in the Quebec campaign the opinion po... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
According to new analysis published today (Friday 15th August), there is considerable public interest in the referendum campaign but almost seventy per cent (69.5%) of voters do not believe that either the Yes or No campaigns can predict the consequences of independence.Many voters are relying on th... Read more
Post type: News Article

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